…ANNTV Analysis: South-West Ranks Second as South-East Records Lowest Electoral Share
By | Goodluck E. Adubazi, Abuja
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, voter-registration figures indicate that Northern Nigeria holds a numerical advantage over the South, with the North-West emerging as the country’s largest geopolitical electoral bloc.
The figures supplied for analysis put Nigeria’s registered electorate at 103,428,715 voters. The three northern zones account for 56,014,673 voters, representing 54.16 per cent, while the three southern zones have 47,414,042, or 45.84 per cent. This gives the North an advantage of approximately 8.6 million registered voters.
SIX GEOPOLITICAL ZONES: ELECTORAL RANKING
The North-West ranks first with 25,083,411 registered voters, representing 24.25 per cent of the national total. Its electoral strength, including major states such as Kano and Kaduna, makes it a critical battleground for presidential candidates.
The South-West ranks second with 19,614,274 voters, accounting for 18.96 per cent. Lagos, with 7,488,633 registered voters in the supplied figures, is a particularly important electoral centre. Economic conditions, employment, transportation, housing and inflation could influence voter preferences across the zone.
North-Central occupies third position with 16,965,787 voters, representing 16.40 per cent. Its political diversity and strategic geographical position make it important for candidates seeking nationwide support. Security, agriculture, infrastructure and employment are likely to feature prominently in campaign debates.
The South-South ranks fourth with 15,823,550 voters, or 15.30 per cent. Its six states and significance to Nigeria’s oil and gas industry make it an important electoral constituency, particularly on issues of environmental protection, employment, infrastructure and resource distribution.
North-East follows with 13,965,475 voters, representing 13.50 per cent. Security, education, agricultural development and economic recovery could influence political choices across the region.
The South-East ranks sixth with 11,976,218 voters, representing 11.58 per cent. Despite having the smallest electorate among the six zones, it remains significant to presidential candidates seeking broader national support.
TURNOUT, NOT JUST NUMBERS, WILL DETERMINE VICTORY
Although the North has a numerical advantage, registered voters do not automatically translate into votes cast. Turnout, party loyalty, candidate popularity, grassroots mobilisation and public confidence in elections will influence the final outcome.
Economic hardship could also become a decisive campaign issue. Nigerians are likely to assess candidates based on their proposals for tackling inflation, unemployment, insecurity, electricity challenges and the rising cost of living.
Under Section 134 of the 1999 Constitution, as amended, a presidential candidate must secure the highest number of votes cast and at least one-quarter of votes cast in at least two-thirds of the states and the FCT, subject to the Constitution’s provisions and relevant judicial interpretation.
Consequently, dominating one region cannot guarantee presidential victory.
ANNTV ‘Inside The Numbers ‘Concluded:
The 2027 presidential contest will depend on candidates’ ability to combine strong regional bases with national appeal, credible policies and effective voter mobilisation.
The figures suggest that the North-West holds the largest electoral bloc, but turnout, voter preferences and constitutional requirements will determine who wins
