By | Goodluck E. Adubazi, Abuja
No fewer than 84 per cent of Nigerians say they are likely or very likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, but fear of electoral violence, declining confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and vote buying could keep millions away from the polls, a new survey by Yiaga Africa has revealed.
The findings were contained in the third edition of Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey (NVIS 3.0), titled “Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027,” released in Abuja on Wednesday.
The survey, which interviewed 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), was conducted in September 2026 through telephone interviews and, for the first time, face-to-face interviews in rural communities.
According to the report, overall voting intention has increased from 77 per cent in December 2025 to 73 per cent in March 2026 and 84 per cent in September 2026.
However, the survey warned that the depth of commitment to voting remains fragile, with the proportion of respondents who said they were “very likely” to vote declining from 52 per cent in the first survey to 48 per cent in the second and 47 per cent in the latest edition.
The report further found that only 41 per cent of respondents were very certain of their choice ahead of the 2027 elections.
Yiaga Africa identified insecurity as the biggest potential barrier to voter turnout, with 61 per cent of respondents saying fear of violence could prevent them from voting.
The concern is particularly high in the North-East, where 78 per cent of respondents expressed fear that electoral violence could keep them away from polling units.
At the same time, 83 per cent said improved security would make them more likely to participate in the elections.
The survey also revealed a significant decline in public confidence in INEC. Only 34 per cent of Nigerians expressed confidence that the commission would conduct credible elections, compared with 45 per cent recorded in the previous two survey rounds.
Lack of confidence was particularly pronounced in the South-East, where 62 per cent expressed distrust, and the South-South, where 57 per cent reported low confidence in the electoral commission.
The survey highlighted a significant generational divide in electoral participation.
Only 40 per cent of young Nigerians said they were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent among Nigerians aged 61 and above.
Young respondents also reported greater fear of electoral violence, lower levels of trust in INEC and substantially greater reliance on social media for election-related information.
Yiaga Africa said the findings point to the need for targeted voter education, confidence-building and stronger engagement with young voters ahead of the 2027 elections.
Despite declining confidence in electoral institutions, Nigerians appear to have greater faith in electoral technology, the report found.
About 49 per cent of respondents said they trusted the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the electronic transmission of results through the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV).
Awareness of electoral reforms has also increased significantly, rising from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent in September 2026.
The survey further showed that 63 per cent of Nigerians have little or no confidence that the judiciary would resolve electoral disputes fairly. The figure rises to 81 per cent in the South-South.
Economy, Leadership to Shape 2027 Vote
The performance of government and the state of the economy are also expected to play a major role in determining voter choices in 2027.
The survey found that 54 per cent of respondents disapprove of the President’s performance, while 71 per cent rated the Nigerian economy as poor or very poor.
A desire for change in leadership emerged as the leading motivation for voting, cited by 49 per cent of respondents.
The economy and jobs followed with 38 per cent, while security was identified by 36 per cent as a major policy priority.
Speaking on the report, Safiya Bichi, Head of Knowledge Management and Learning at Yiaga Africa, said Nigerians had not abandoned the electoral process but were being prevented from translating their willingness to vote into actual participation by fear, distrust and money politics.
“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference,” she said.
Bichi described low turnout in Nigeria as “a conversion problem, not an apathy problem,” stressing that institutions and actors responsible for security, electoral credibility and logistics must act urgently.
“With the presidential election on 16 January 2027, the window to act is short,” she said.
Yiaga Africa called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan through the Inter-Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) by November 2026, with priority attention to the North-East, North-West and North-Central regions.
It also urged INEC to make a binding public commitment to real-time uploading of all polling unit results to IReV, publish and stress-test its results management protocol, and intensify confidence-building efforts in the South-East and South-South.
The organisation called on the judiciary to resolve pre-election candidacy disputes before ballot papers are printed and publish clear timelines for the resolution of election petitions.
Political parties and candidates were urged to campaign on costed plans for security and the economy, honour the Peace Accord and commit to an enforceable anti-vote-buying pledge.
Yiaga Africa also urged civil society organisations and the media to move voter education beyond exhortation to concrete assurances, with greater focus on young people, women
